The February 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 11, 2016. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Lower Growth Estimates Amid Rising Recession Risk.” As indicated in the article, 69 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The markets’ woes reflect investor fears that global economic growth is slowing sharply and that the U.S. will be unable to stay healthy when so many foreign economies are lagging.
While the current economic expansion has been underwhelming, it has lasted a long time by historical standards. The economy has been gradually expanding—beginning from a several depressed level—since June 2009. The average economic expansion since World War II has lasted for slightly less than six years. The current expansion has lasted for more than 6½.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 21.25%; the average response in January’s survey was 16.93%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 1.9%
full-year 2016: 2.3%
full-year 2017: 2.3%
full-year 2018: 2.2%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
December 2018: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2016: 2.51%
December 2017: 3.02%
December 2018: 3.42%
December 2016: 1.7%
December 2017: 2.3%
December 2018: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2016: $40.62
for 12/31/2017: $46.35
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1818.60 as post is written