America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 25, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of August 22, 2014 (incorporating data through August …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 39 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of August 20, 2014, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2014 estimate: $119.31/share …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 14, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $119.25/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 14, 2014 update (reflecting data through August 8) is -1.202. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Yesterday (August 18, 2014) Feeding America released the “Hunger in America 2014” report. As stated: Hunger in America 2014 is the sixth and most comprehensive study undertaken. The 2014 study reveals that each year, the Feeding America network of food banks provides service to 46.5 million people in need across the United States, including 12 million children …
The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2014 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 15, 2014. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2014 : 2.1% full-year 2015: 3.1% full-year …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2015 management call transcript (pdf) dated May 14, 2014. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q2 results) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly conference call comments; these previous posts are found under …