America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his October 9, 2014 post titled …
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 9, 2014. The headline is “Conditions Ripe for Stronger Growth, WSJ Survey Says.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: Faster job …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 2, 2014 update (reflecting data through September 26) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2014 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties.” One area of the report is figure 1.12 on page 14. While I do not agree with the current readings of the three measures presented – Probability of Recession, Probability of Deflation, and the “Deflation …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 41st update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
On October 7, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Stable at -15 in September.” The subtitle is “Confidence slightly higher in most recent week.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index was steady in September, at -15 for the month, similar to the -16 it averaged in August. September’s reading …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …