America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Wednesday, March 16, 2016 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled March 2016 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 10, 2016 update (reflecting data through March 4) is -.609. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
For reference purposes, the chart below shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index on a daily basis, since 2006, with price labels: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 2022.19 as …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 4Q 2015“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 to 2015:Q4). The last value (as of March 10, 2016) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of March 10, 2016 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q4.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in …
The March 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 10, 2016. The headline is “U.S. Election Turmoil Fuels Economic Uncertainty, WSJ Survey Says.” As indicated in the article, 64 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On March 9, 2016 the March Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: U.S. CFOs, on average, believe there is a 31 percent chance that the U.S. economy will …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 3, 2016 update (reflecting data through February 26) is -.482. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …