Updates On Economic Indicators December 2010

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 20, 2010: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: … Read more Updates On Economic Indicators December 2010

“60 Minutes” On State Budget Problems

On Sunday, “60 Minutes” did a segment on state budget problems.  Both video and a transcript are available. The segment is worth viewing, especially for those who lack familiarity with the issue.  While I don’t agree with some of its comments, it provides a good overview of the situation and some of the complexities involved. … Read more “60 Minutes” On State Budget Problems

S&P500 Price Targets & Projected Earnings 2011 & 2012

Today’s Barron’s has a cover story titled “Outlook 2011.” Among the average forecasts of the 10 respondents (strategists and investment managers) was the following: A year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1373.25 $92.90 S&P500 EPS for 2011 $100.83  S&P500 EPS for 2012 (an average from 6 respondents) 3.2% GDP growth for 2011 In a separate story … Read more S&P500 Price Targets & Projected Earnings 2011 & 2012

Quantitative Easing Exit Issues

During QE1 (the first round of The Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing) there seemed to be substantial commentary and discussion concerning the exit of such a program. Over the last few months the discussions over the exit strategy seem to have diminished greatly – despite the start of QE2 and speculation of additional QE programs, i.e. … Read more Quantitative Easing Exit Issues

The December 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published December 13, 2010. I found a couple of excerpts, seen below, to be especially notable: “The economists now see stronger expansion in the first half of 2011, with growth picking up speed as the year progresses. For the year, they expect GDP will rise 3%. … Read more The December 2010 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

S&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2010

The December 9, 2010  Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2010   1200 June 30, 2011   1250 Dec. 30, 2011   1298.5 Dec. 31, 2012    1350 These figures represent the median value across the 33 forecasters on the … Read more S&P500 Price Projections – Livingston Survey December 2010

Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2010

The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk Blog of December 9, 2010.  It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP.  The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 3Q 2010 report: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in the above-referenced CalculatedRisk blog post: “According to the Fed, … Read more Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2010

Measuring QE2 Effectiveness

In announcing QE2 in their November 3 FOMC meeting, the statement contained the following excerpt: “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over … Read more Measuring QE2 Effectiveness

The Wealth Disparity

In his “60 Minutes” interview of Sunday (which I commented upon in the last post), Ben Bernanke responded to  a question (from Scott Pelley) regarding the wealth disparity: Pelley: The gap between rich and poor in this country has never been greater. In fact, we have the biggest income disparity gap of any industrialized country … Read more The Wealth Disparity