America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. Of note, yesterday the yield on the 10-Year Treasury fell below 2% on an intraday basis, but closed at 2.09%. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last …
On October 8, 2014, The Conference Board and PwC released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 59, down from 62 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 8 Press Release include: …
The October NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, October 14. The headline of the Press Release is “NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index Declines in September. ” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased .8 points in September to 95.3. Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find particularly notable (but …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his October 9, 2014 post titled …
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 9, 2014. The headline is “Conditions Ripe for Stronger Growth, WSJ Survey Says.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: Faster job …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 2, 2014 update (reflecting data through September 26) is -1.137. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2014 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties.” One area of the report is figure 1.12 on page 14. While I do not agree with the current readings of the three measures presented – Probability of Recession, Probability of Deflation, and the “Deflation …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 41st update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …