The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2014 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties.”
One area of the report is figure 1.12 on page 14. While I do not agree with the current readings of the three measures presented – Probability of Recession, Probability of Deflation, and the “Deflation Vulnerability Index” – I do find them to be notable, especially as one can compare these estimates across various economies.
As one can see, the U.S. is estimated to have a roughly 14.5% probability of recession and a roughly 0% probability of deflation for the periods indicated.
I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1935.10 this post is written