The October 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 9, 2014.  The headline is “Conditions Ripe for Stronger Growth, WSJ Survey Says.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

Two excerpts:

Faster job growth and stronger consumer confidence are already putting the U.S. expansion on a steady trajectory heading into 2015. Now, falling energy prices are offering another boost, according to The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of economists.


When it comes to downside risks to the outlook, international affairs remain the dominant fear. A few economists also raised caution flags over the strengthening dollar and a possible widening in the nation’s trade deficit.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.88%; September’s average response was 11.65%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2014:  2.2%

full-year 2015:  2.8%

full-year 2016:  2.7%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 5.8%

December 2015: 5.4%

December 2016: 5.1%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 2.75%

December 2015: 3.51%

December 2016: 3.93%


December 2014:  1.9%

December 2015:  2.0%

December 2016:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2014: $91.16

for 12/31/2015: $90.24

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1925.85 as this post is written