America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of October 5, 2017: Year 2017 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $127.08/share …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 100 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The October 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 12, 2017. The headline is “Economists See GOP Tax Plan Producing Growth Spurt, But Split Over Long-Term Effect.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 5, 2017 update (reflecting data through September 29, 2017) is -1.552. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2017 “World Economic Outlook.” The subtitle is ”Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges.” One area of the report is Figure 1.19 on page 26. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability …
On October 5, 2017, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 59, down from 61 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 5 Press Release include: CEOs’ assessment …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …