America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of October 27, 2017. As one can see, two of the three measures are very near …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.0%” post of October 27, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of October 27, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2017, updated on October 25, 2017. This value is $238,695 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 19, 2017 update (reflecting data through October 13, 2017) is -1.555. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 23, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .17: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 12, 2017 update (reflecting data through October 6, 2017) is -1.540. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of October 17, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …