America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 11, 2018 update (reflecting data through October 5, 2018) is -1.263. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 112 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
The October 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 11, 2018. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Increasingly Confident of Fed Rate Hikes.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 11, 2018 update (reflecting data through October 5, 2018) is -1.263. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
On October 4, 2018, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 55, down from 63 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 4 Press Release include: CEOs’ assessment …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 27, 2018 update (reflecting data through September 21, 2018) is -1.304. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …