On October 4, 2018, The Conference Board released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 55, down from 63 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this October 4 Press Release include:
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions is less positive, with 49 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, down from 74 percent last quarter. However, 43 percent of CEOs say conditions have remained the same, and only 8 percent say conditions are worse. CEOs were also less optimistic about current conditions in their own industries compared to six months ago. Now, about 31 percent say conditions are better compared to 51 percent last quarter.
Looking ahead, CEOs’ expectations regarding the economic outlook are also less optimistic than last quarter. Now, just 23 percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to 48 percent in the second quarter. About 22 percent expect economic conditions will worsen, compared to 14 percent last quarter. CEOs’ expectations regarding short-term prospects in their own industries over the next six months were also less optimistic. Now, only 22 percent anticipate an improvement in conditions, down from 42 percent last quarter. Some 19 percent expect conditions to worsen, up from just 9 percent in the second quarter.
Last month, The Business Roundtable also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2018. Notable excerpts from the release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Remains Strong, Declines Slightly in Q3“:
The Q3 2018 CEO Economic Outlook Index was 109.3, a decline of 1.8 points from 111.1 in the second quarter of 2018. At 109.3, the Q3 Index is the fifth-highest in the survey’s 16-year history and well above the historical average of 81.6. This is the seventh straight quarter where the Index has exceeded its historical average, signaling a continued positive direction for the U.S. economy.
In their fourth estimate of 2018 U.S. GDP growth, CEOs projected 2.8 percent growth for the year, up slightly from their 2.7 percent estimate in the second quarter.
Additional details can be seen in the sources mentioned above.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2888.02 as this post is written