America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 25, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2024. The headline is “It Won’t Be a Recession – It Will Just Feel Like One.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 11, 2024 update (reflecting data through January 5, 2024) is -.5486: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 28, 2023 update (reflecting data through December 22, 2023) is -.4711: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 26, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .03: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On December 20, 2023 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: also: Still, respondents’ average expectation for GDP growth over the …
On December 13, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2023. Notable excerpts from this December 13, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q4 CEO Economic Outlook Index Reflects a Stable but Cooling U.S. Economy“: The overall Index ticked up a modest two points from …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 14, 2023 update (reflecting data through December 8, 2023) is -.4063: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …