America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 26, 2020: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .27: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On October 20, 2020, The Conference Board released the September 2020 Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 64, up from 45. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 20, 2020 Press Release include: Current Conditions CEOs’ assessment of general …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – October 16, 2020 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 15, 2020 update (reflecting data through October 9, 2020) is -.5148. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 8, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: 43% of Economists Don’t See U.S. Gaining Back Lost Jobs Until 2023.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the …
Read moreThe October 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
On October 7, 2020 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Corporate financial decision-makers …
Read moreThe CFO Survey Third Quarter 2020 – Notable Excerpts
Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through September 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Read moreU.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through September 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 24, 2020 update (reflecting data through September 18, 2020) is -.3850. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 21, 2020: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .79: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …