America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 1, 2025 update (reflecting data through September 26, 2025) is -.5340: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through September 2025. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
On September 24, 2025 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The outlook for the U.S. economy among financial decision-makers improved …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 22, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.12: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 17, 2025 update (reflecting data through September 12, 2025) is -.5655: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 4, 2025 update (reflecting data through August 29, 2025) is -.7126: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through August 2025. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 25, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.19: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …