America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 20, 2025 update (reflecting data through August 15, 2025) is -.8153: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 15, 2025. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2025: 1.7% full-year 2026: 1.6% full-year 2027: …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 7, 2025 update (reflecting data through August 1, 2025) is -.6777: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 5, 2025, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2025.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 24, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.10: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 17, 2025 update (reflecting data through July 11, 2025) is -.7526: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2025. The headline is “Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth : WSJ Survey.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through June 2025. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …