America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 5, 2025, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2025.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 24, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.10: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 17, 2025 update (reflecting data through July 11, 2025) is -.7526: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The July 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 12, 2025. The headline is “Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth : WSJ Survey.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through June 2025. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 26, 2025 update (reflecting data through June 20, 2025) is -.6635: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 26, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.28: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On June 25, 2025 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: In the survey, which closed on June 6, CFOs revised …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 12, 2025 update (reflecting data through June 6, 2025) is -.8111: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …