The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2024. The headline is “It Won’t Be a Recession – It Will Just Feel Like One.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
An excerpt:
Still, economists on average expect the economy to grow just 1% in 2024, about half its normal long-run rate, and a significant slowing from an estimated 2.6% in 2023.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 39%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 80%. For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 48%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted January 5 – January 9. Not every economist answered every question.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2023: 2.65%
full-year 2024: 1.01%
full-year 2025: 1.99%
full-year 2026: 2.01%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2024: 4.30%
December 2025: 4.13%
December 2026: 3.99%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2024: 3.79%
December 2025: 3.68%
December 2026: 3.65%
CPI:
December 2024: 2.33%
December 2025: 2.25%
December 2026: 2.28%
Core PCE:
full-year 2023: 3.25%
full-year 2024: 2.30%
full-year 2025: 2.12%
full-year 2026: 2.16%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4783.83 as this post is written