The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2024. The headline is “It Won’t Be a Recession – It Will Just Feel Like One.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.

An excerpt:

Still, economists on average expect the economy to grow just 1% in 2024, about half its normal long-run rate, and a significant slowing from an estimated 2.6% in 2023.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 39%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 80%.  For reference, the average response in October’s survey [the previously published survey] was 48%.

As stated in the article, the survey’s 71 respondents were academic, financial and business economists.  The survey was conducted January 5 – January 9. Not every economist answered every question.

Economic Forecasts

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2023:  2.65%

full-year 2024:  1.01%

full-year 2025:  1.99%

full-year 2026:  2.01%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2024: 4.30%

December 2025: 4.13%

December 2026: 3.99%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2024: 3.79%

December 2025: 3.68%

December 2026: 3.65%


December 2024:  2.33%

December 2025:  2.25%

December 2026:  2.28%

Core PCE:

full-year 2023:  3.25%

full-year 2024:  2.30%

full-year 2025:  2.12%

full-year 2026:  2.16%

(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 4783.83 as this post is written