America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.35: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2020
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – January 17, 2020 Update
The January 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 16, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S., China Agreement Will Boost Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: On … Read more The January 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 9, 2020 update (reflecting data through January 3, 2020) is -1.419. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
On January 7, 2020, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 43, up from 34 in the third quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this January 7, 2020 Press Release include: CEOs … Read more CEO Confidence Surveys 4Q 2019 – Notable Excerpts
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read more Deflation Probabilities – January 9, 2020 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 2, 2020 update (reflecting data through December 27, 2019) is -1.40. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – January 2020
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 23, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of .56: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2019
The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 18, 2019. The headline is “U.S. Expansion Expected to Continue Through 2020.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Three excerpts: The U.S. … Read more The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey