Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2021

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of July 7, 2021, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2021.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 22, 2021 update (reflecting data through July 16, 2021) is -.9812: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators July 2021

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .09: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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The CFO Survey Second Quarter 2021 – Notable Excerpts

On July 14, 2021 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: CFOs and other …

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