America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 7, 2021, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2021.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 22, 2021 update (reflecting data through July 16, 2021) is -.9812: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .09: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
On July 14, 2021 the latest CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: CFOs and other …
The July 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 11, 2021. The headline is “Higher Inflation Is Here to Stay for Years, Economists Forecast.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. An excerpt: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 8, 2021 update (reflecting data through July 2, 2021) is -1.0190: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …