America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 16, 2020 update (reflecting data through April 10, 2020) is 2.0198. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 20, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -4.19: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National … Read more Updates Of Economic Indicators April 2020
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – April 17, 2020 Update
On April 15, 2020 the April 2020 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The CFO Optimism Index fell to … Read more April 2020 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook Survey – Notable Excerpts
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 9, 2020 update (reflecting data through April 3, 2020) is 2.7226. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
On April 9, 2020, The Conference Board released the 1st Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 36, down from 43 in the fourth quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this April 9, 2020 Press Release include: “In … Read more CEO Confidence Surveys 1Q 2020 – Notable Excerpts
The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 8, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Cause Deep U.S. Contraction, 13% Unemployment.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two … Read more The April 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 2, 2020 update (reflecting data through March 27, 2020) is 5.1434. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read more Recession Probability Models – April 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 26, 2020 update (reflecting data through March 20, 2020) is 5.7870. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)