America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 20, 2022 update (reflecting data through October 14, 2022) is -1.4153: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
The October 2022 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 16, 2022. The headline is “Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. Two excerpts: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 6, 2022 update (reflecting data through September 30, 2022) is -1.2385: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through September 2022. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
On September 28, 2022 The CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Financial decision-makers lowered …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 26, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of 0.0: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 22, 2022 update (reflecting data through September 16, 2022) is -1.9120: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
On September 12, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this September 12, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q3 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals Continued U.S. Slowdown“: Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …