America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 8, 2019 update (reflecting data through August 2, 2019) is -1.355. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 9, 2019. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2019: 2.3% full-year 2020: 1.9% full-year 2021: … Read morePhiladelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters
The August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 8, 2019. The headline is “Economists See Greater Chance of September Rate Cut, WSJ Survey Says.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. … Read moreThe August 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – August 8, 2019 Update
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 1, 2019 update (reflecting data through July 26, 2019) is -1.367. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – August 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 25, 2019 update (reflecting data through July 19, 2019) is -1.334. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of July 8, 2019, titled “Recession Probability Models – July 2019.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the … Read moreAnother Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q1 2019
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 22, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.02: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators July 2019
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities … Read moreDeflation Probabilities – July 18, 2019 Update