America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The January 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 18, 2026. The headline is “Economists Shrug Off Trumponomics, Boost 2026 Growth Outlook Back Above 2%.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. An …
On December 17, 2025 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The top concern among U.S. CFOs remains tariffs, though their …
The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 17, 2025. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2025: 1.9% full-year 2026: 1.8% full-year 2027: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 29, 2025 update (reflecting data through October 24, 2025) is -.5081: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 15, 2025 update (reflecting data through October 10, 2025) is -.4834: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The October 2025 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 12, 2025. The headline is “Stronger Growth, Weaker Hiring: Forecasters See a Split-Screen Economy.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. An excerpt: Economists …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 1, 2025 update (reflecting data through September 26, 2025) is -.5340: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through September 2025. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
On September 24, 2025 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The outlook for the U.S. economy among financial decision-makers improved …