The August 2011 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published August 12, 2011.  The headline is “Feeble Numbers Stir Recession Fears.”

I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts:

The 46 economists in the survey—not all of whom answer every question—put the odds that the U.S. is already in another recession at 13%, while they peg the chances of going that way in the next year at 29%—up from 17% only a month ago.

Also, a question in the detail (spreadsheet) asked “Please grade the economic leadership in the following regions” – which generated universally poor marks from respondents.

Another question in the detail asked “If you were to go short on a currency over the next three years what would it be?”  The responses were the following:

Euro:  40%

U.S. Dollar:  17%

Yen:  11%

Swiss Franc:  11%

Yuan:  9%

Other:  11%

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2011 : 1.6%

full-year 2012:  2.5%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2011: 9.0%

December 2012: 8.4%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2011: 2.83%

December 2012: 3.54%


December 2011:  2.9%

December 2012:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2011: $86.18

for 12/31/2012: $88.89

(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1172.64 as this post is written