America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his August 7, 2014 post titled …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 39th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 7, 2014. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See Second-Half GDP Growth of 3%.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. One excerpt: According …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
Since the Financial Crisis, a variety of reforms have been enacted that will purportedly lessen the possibility of future financial crises, and/or lessen the severity of such crises when and if they occur. One of these reforms is the new money market rules, and other proposed and enacted initiatives are discussed by Stanley Fischer in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 31, 2014 update (reflecting data through July 25) is -1.340. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On August 5, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “In U.S., Economic Confidence Dips Two Points in July.” The subtitle is “Americans’ economic outlook worsens.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell two points in July to -17, which is the lowest index reading since March. also: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is the average of …
On August 1, 2014, the Zillow Q3 2014 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Two excerpts from the Press Release: The panel also said they expect U.S. median home values to end 2014 up 4.6 percent, on average, and to exceed their 2007 peak levels by the end …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …