The August 2014 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The August Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 7, 2014.  The headline is “WSJ Survey:  Economists See Second-Half GDP Growth of 3%.”

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

One excerpt:

According to this month’s survey of 43 economists—not all of whom answered every question—real gross domestic product is pegged to grow at an annual rate just shy of 3% in the third and fourth quarters. That would put GDP growth over the full year 2014 at 2%, not much different from the economy’s overall weak performance so far in this recovery.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 12.1%; July’s average response was 12.13%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2014:  2.0%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

full-year 2016:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2014: 5.9%

December 2015: 5.5%

December 2016: 5.2%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2014: 3.04%

December 2015: 3.72%

December 2016: 4.18%


December 2014:  2.2%

December 2015:  2.2%

December 2016:  2.4%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2014: $96.08

for 12/31/2015: $94.92

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1909.57 as this post is written