America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. My previous post concerning their estimates can be found at the September 17 and May 30 posts) Currently, their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $94.79/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
On December 14, Doug Short posted to his blog a chart showing retail sales per capita, adjusted for inflation (CPI). The data is through November, as noted on the chart: (click on chart to enlarge image) Of course, this view of total retail sales, on a per-capita (factoring in population growth) basis – as well …
On December 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 4th quarter. The December Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was also released on December 14. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 20, 2010: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: …
On Sunday, “60 Minutes” did a segment on state budget problems. Both video and a transcript are available. The segment is worth viewing, especially for those who lack familiarity with the issue. While I don’t agree with some of its comments, it provides a good overview of the situation and some of the complexities involved. …
Today’s Barron’s has a cover story titled “Outlook 2011.” Among the average forecasts of the 10 respondents (strategists and investment managers) was the following: A year-end 2011 S&P500 target of 1373.25 $92.90 S&P500 EPS for 2011 $100.83 S&P500 EPS for 2012 (an average from 6 respondents) 3.2% GDP growth for 2011 In a separate story …
During QE1 (the first round of The Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing) there seemed to be substantial commentary and discussion concerning the exit of such a program. Over the last few months the discussions over the exit strategy seem to have diminished greatly – despite the start of QE2 and speculation of additional QE programs, i.e. …
On Tuesday the November PPI figures were released, and they continue their recent trend of being significantly higher than the CPI figures. Should this trend continue, it will of course likely have a significant impact on many companies’ profitability. I believe there are many reasons for why PPI growth is trending significantly higher than CPI. …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published December 13, 2010. I found a couple of excerpts, seen below, to be especially notable: “The economists now see stronger expansion in the first half of 2011, with growth picking up speed as the year progresses. For the year, they expect GDP will rise 3%. …
The December 9, 2010 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2010 1200 June 30, 2011 1250 Dec. 30, 2011 1298.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1350 These figures represent the median value across the 33 forecasters on the …