Updates On Economic Indicators

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 28, 2010: The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt … Read more Updates On Economic Indicators

Raghuram Rajan Interview – Noteworthy Comment

A June 17 2010 Raghuram Rajan interview contained several interesting viewpoints. While I don’t necessarily agree with what he says in this interview, I found it to be well worth reading. Of particular note was the following comment, which I found provocative – if not very much so – and thought-provoking, as its implications, if … Read more Raghuram Rajan Interview – Noteworthy Comment

MacroMarkets June 2010 Home Price Expectations Survey

On Wednesday (June 23) MacroMarkets released its June Home Price Expectations Survey results. Here is the Press Release (pdf); the accompanying chart is seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the expectation is that not only has the residential real estate market hit a “bottom” as far as pricing; but that steady … Read more MacroMarkets June 2010 Home Price Expectations Survey

Macroeconomic Advisers On Possibility Of Double Dip

I found this June 10 blog post, titled “The Chances of a ‘Double-Dip’ are Essentially Nil” by Macroeconomic Advisers to be notable. Of course, I am not in agreement with those that believe any material further economic weakness will be avoided.  However, many economists feel differently; as I have noted in the post of June … Read more Macroeconomic Advisers On Possibility Of Double Dip

ECRI On Frequency Of Recessions

I recently came across a notable excerpt in ECRI’s “U.S. Cyclical Outlook” of December 2009 (pdf): “The bottom line is that long expansions are needed after severe recessions to undo the damage.  After the 1932-33 depression, not even four years of expansion were quite enough, despite 10% annual GNP growth.  This time trend growth is … Read more ECRI On Frequency Of Recessions

Larry Summers On The Economy

Saturday’s (June 19) Boston Globe contained an interview with Larry Summers on the state of the economy. I found the phrasing in a couple of his statements, as seen below, notable: “Summers, the former Harvard University president and Treasury secretary under President Clinton, presented a cautious, measured view of economic conditions. For example, after expressing … Read more Larry Summers On The Economy

S&P500 Price Projections

The June 9, 2010  Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2010   1115.0 Dec. 31, 2010    1187.6 June 30, 2011   1243.5 Dec. 30, 2011    1280.0 These figures represent the median value across the 40 forecasters on the survey’s panel. … Read more S&P500 Price Projections

Total Household Net Worth As Percent Of GDP 1Q 2010

The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk Blog of June 10, 2010.  It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP.  The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 1Q2010 report: click on chart to enlarge image As seen in the above-referenced CalculatedRisk blog post: “According to the Fed, household … Read more Total Household Net Worth As Percent Of GDP 1Q 2010

ECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary

The recent steep fall in the ECRI WLI has been widely commented upon. I’ve recently run across two items, an article and an interview, that I think are very notable with regard to interpreting the WLI. The first is an article ( “Is ECRI Growth Rate Index Signaling A Double Dip?”) that discusses the predictive … Read more ECRI WLI Interpretation & Commentary