America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The August 16-August 29 2010 Bloomberg BusinessWeek had an article on stock forecasts titled “The Market’s Economic Disconnect.” Here is an excerpt: “The fastest annual earnings increase in 22 years will push the S&P index up 20 percent in the last six months of 2010 to 1,242, according to the average projection of 12 firms …
Here are two charts that I have found interesting from a Technical Analysis perspective. I believe they are helpful in understanding the current stock market situation. I would like to reiterate my view that we are in a bear market rally, albeit subject to conditions I spoke of in my June 2 post. Here is …
In March of 2009 I wrote an article titled “A S&P500 Target of 100?” I am sure that the mere idea of such a target seems impossible to many. However, for a variety of reasons, many indicated in the aforementioned article, I believe that such a target is not only possible but increasing in likelihood. …
The June 9, 2010 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2010 1115.0 Dec. 31, 2010 1187.6 June 30, 2011 1243.5 Dec. 30, 2011 1280.0 These figures represent the median value across the 40 forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article: “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses …
With the ongoing problems in Europe, fears of worldwide economic “contagion”, and many overt signs of economic slowing in the United States, one is led to wonder how susceptible the U.S. stock markets are to further declines. While I have written extensively about how I believe the stock market will face an exceedingly large decline …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for …
As seen in the chart below, the 50 day moving average (as seen in blue) for the VIX is now trending higher. This is the first time since March 2009 in which it has done so in a significant manner: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Of course, there are many different ways to measure volatility. Other …
I find last Thursday’s stock market plunge to be highly notable on several fronts. The temptation is to treat the event as a “fluke” or “one off” event that is inconsequential; it is especially tempting to do so when most of the damage was quickly reversed and, as of this writing, stock indices are again …
Over the last few months a notable divergence has occurred between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. Two charts illustrate this divergence. The first shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The second chart shows a chart of FXI, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index. This chart …