America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (their latest estimates are as of February 29), their estimates for 2012 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $104.89/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief seventh update to that post. The current forecasting consensus among economists and investment professionals is one of slow (U.S.) economic growth, steady if not rising financial markets, and low probabilities (in two …
In the Wall Street Journal of March 3-4, there was a notable article titled “Playing the Profit Wave.” The article discusses various aspects of corporate profitability, foremost among them whether profit margins are peaking. I believe that this subject is of great importance currently, and many facets deserve greater recognition; especially, the lagging growth in …
On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” Although financial stocks have increased in price in 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator …
In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief sixth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. There are many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature, and many lack …
I have frequently commented how my overall analysis indicates that our economic situation is of high complexity. This complexity also applies to movements in the financial markets. As such, predicting the timing of various major stock market events, such as major tops, bottoms, and especially “crashes” is difficult. That being said, a variety of factors …
In yesterday’s post (“Notable Technical And Sentiment Extremes In The Stock Market“) I mentioned the VIX level of 20 and its significance. I first wrote of the VIX level of 20 as an important demarcation in the discussions of the VIX in 2009. It continues to be an important level, serving both as technical support …
In this post I would like to highlight various areas which I believe indicate excessively positive sentiment and problematical technical analysis measures in the stock market. While the full list is extensive, I believe the list below represents a “sample” of how there is a high level of “frothiness” and other excess in the markets, …
Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. -an excerpt from the FOMC Statement of January 25, 2012 On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief fifth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates …