S&P500 Price Projections

The June 9, 2010  Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast.  It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2010   1115.0 Dec. 31, 2010    1187.6 June 30, 2011   1243.5 Dec. 30, 2011    1280.0 These figures represent the median value across the 40 forecasters on the survey’s panel. …

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S&P500 Earnings Forecasts & Forecast Accuracy

On June 1 The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Analysts Cheer For Recovery.” From the article:  “Current estimates put the S&P 500 on track for earnings per share of $85.26 this year, according to Thomson Reuters, a return to 2007 levels. Analysts’ $96.61 forecast for 2011 earnings would mark a record that surpasses …

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The Stock Market – Continued Weakness?

With the ongoing problems in Europe, fears of worldwide economic “contagion”, and many overt signs of economic slowing in the United States, one is led to wonder how susceptible the U.S. stock markets are to further declines. While I have written extensively about how I believe the stock market will face an exceedingly large decline …

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S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2010 & 2011

As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for …

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Stock Market Volatility

As seen in the chart below, the 50 day moving average (as seen in blue) for the VIX is now trending higher.  This is the first time since March 2009 in which it has done so in a significant manner: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Of course, there are many different ways to measure volatility.  Other …

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Thoughts On The May 6 Stock Market Plunge

I find last Thursday’s stock market plunge to be highly notable on several fronts.  The temptation is to treat the event as a “fluke” or “one off” event that is inconsequential; it is especially tempting to do so when most of the damage was quickly reversed and, as of this writing, stock indices are again …

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The S&P500 And Chinese Stock Market

Over the last few months a notable divergence has occurred between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. Two charts illustrate this divergence.  The first shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The second chart shows a chart of FXI, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index.  This chart …

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Stock Market Capitalization As A % Of GDP

Recent statistics indicate that the stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP appears to again be over 100%. This is an elevated level from a historical perspective. I’ve written of this metric before in an article titled “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” I feel that for many reasons this is an important …

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Notable S&P500 Price Action

The climb in the S&P500 has been notable over the last few sessions.  According to SentimenTrader.com, through yesterday, “Yet another up day pushed the S&P 500 futures to its 10th straight gain, only the second time since their inception (01/15/87 was the other).” Here is a chart of the S&P500 price action of the last …

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2010 S&P500 Earnings Projections

Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers.   I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010.  As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …

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