On March 31, 2023 Gallup released the poll results titled “Economic Pessimism Persists, With Inflation Still Key Concern.”
Notable excerpts include:
The American public continues to rate the U.S. economy in mostly negative terms in March, with 83% describing current economic conditions as “only fair” or “poor.” Just 16% consider them “excellent” or “good.” Furthermore, 72% think conditions are getting worse, while 23% say they are improving.
Gallup combines Americans’ rating of current economic conditions with their perception of the economy’s direction to create its Economic Confidence Index. This month’s index score is -38, which is the average of Americans’ net-positive rating of current conditions (the percentage rating the economy as excellent or good minus the percentage rating it poor) and their net-positive outlook score (the percentage saying the economy is getting better minus the percentage saying it is getting worse).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all respondents rate the economy as excellent or good and say it’s improving) to -100 (if all rate it as poor and say it’s getting worse). In practice, the highest the index has been since Gallup began tracking the component questions in 1992 was +56 in January 2000, and the lowest was -72 in October 2008.
Here is an accompanying chart of the Gallup Economic Confidence Index:
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 4081.05 as this post is written