America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 22, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.15: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 16, 2023, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 13, 2023: Year 2023 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $218.22/share …
On June 16, 2023, the Zillow Q2 2023 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q2 2023 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the …
The June 2023 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 16, 2023 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2023 4200.0 Dec. 29, 2023 4260.4 June 28, 2024 4350.9 Dec. 31, 2024 4411.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On Wednesday, June 14, 2023 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled June 2023 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 13, 2022. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Owners Express Great Concern for Future Business Conditions.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by .4 points to 89.4. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily …
On June 7, 2023, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2023. Notable excerpts from this June 7, 2023 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Dips Slightly…“: The overall Index dipped a modest three points from last quarter to 76, remaining below its …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2023:Q1). The last value (as of the June 8, 2023 update) is $148.835347 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …