America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In this post I would like to highlight various areas which I believe indicate excessively positive sentiment and problematical technical analysis measures in the stock market. While the full list is extensive, I believe the list below represents a “sample” of how there is a high level of “frothiness” and other excess in the markets, …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On January 25, Gallup published poll results in a release titled “Americans Divided on Whether U.S. Economic System Is Unfair.” In the poll results, it is seen that 45% think the economic system is “fair” while 49% think it is “unfair,” with 6% having “no opinion.” The poll also asks “Do you think the U.S. …
Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. -an excerpt from the FOMC Statement of January 25, 2012 On October 17 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief fifth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
Up until this point I have not commented upon the situation at MF Global. Two recent articles highlight the current state of what appears to be known and unknown concerning the situation, including the potential of customers to “get their money back.” These two articles are the January 30 Wall Street Journal article titled “Money …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, last updated on January 26. This December value is 214,522 ($ Millions) : – Here …
I would like to highlight the topic of asset bubbles and the numerous past posts I have written concerning them. This topic is particularly apropos given that my analysis indicates that various asset bubbles are very “mature,” i.e. very close to ending or “popping.” As well, I have been writing of my analysis concerning …
On Wednesday, January 25, Ben Bernanke gave his scheduled press conference. Here are Ben Bernanke’s comments I found most notable, although I don’t necessarily agree with them. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference“(preliminary)(pdf) of January 25, 2012, with accompanying economic projections (pdf). Bernanke’s responses as indicated to the various …