A Stock Market Top?

I have frequently commented how my overall analysis indicates that our economic situation is of high complexity.  This complexity also applies to movements in the financial markets.

As such, predicting the timing of various major stock market events, such as major tops, bottoms, and especially “crashes” is difficult.

That being said, a variety of factors leads me to believe that it is likely that today we are seeing a stock market (as depicted by the S&P500) “top” from the move that began on October 4, 2011.  As of this writing, the high for the day is 1351.00, with the current price at 1350.07.

As reference, below is a 1-year daily chart of the S&P500, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1350.07 as this post is written