America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on December 27, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 21, …
Doug Short had a blog post of December 27 (“Consumer Confidence Takes a Plunge“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through October), from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 26 titled “Comment on House Prices, Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio” : (click on chart to enlarge image) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic …
On December 26, the Zillow December 2012 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An image from the December 2012 Survey results is seen below: (click on chart image to enlarge) As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, …
On December 12 the December Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpt: The fiscal cliff is among the greatest concerns affecting the corporate sector, trailing only weak consumer demand …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November, last updated on December 21. This value is 220,941 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 21, 2012: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 12/21/12 (incorporating data through 12/14/12) the WLI was at …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on December 20, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 14, …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 19 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …