Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of June 27, 2013

Doug Short had a blog post of June 25 (“Consumer Confidence Beats Expectations, Highest Since January 2008“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through May 2013

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May, last updated on June 25.  This value is 231,030 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …

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Potential Losses In The Federal Reserve’s Portfolio

I have written extensively on the issue of Quantitative Easing (QE) and Interventions as I believe many aspects of these practices lack recognition and understanding.   Quantitative Easing in general carries an array of risks, detrimental impacts, unintended consequences, and complex impacts on the economy and markets. One such set of dynamics embedded within QE that …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …

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S&P500 Earnings Estimates For Years 2013, 2014, And 2015

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” of June 24, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2013 estimate: $111.01/share …

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Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2013 & 2014 – As Of June 21, 2013

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 21, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $109.55/share …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators June 2013

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 24, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 6/21/13 (incorporating data through 6/14/13) the WLI was at …

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Current Economic Situation

With regard to our current economic situation,  my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 25 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – June 20, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on June 20, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to June 14, …

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