America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 20, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of April 17, 2015 (incorporating data through April …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 9, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 3) is -1.072. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The March NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, April 14, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “In Rare Occurrence, All Ten Components Of NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Weakened.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased 2.8 points in March to 95.2. Here are some excerpts from that …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 70 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2015 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors.” One area of the report is Figure 1.13 on page 20. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 9, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Think Fed Will Wait Until September to Raise Rates.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 47th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 2, 2015 update (reflecting data through March 27) is -1.063. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …