America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Each week I have been posting two charts of the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 52 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. …
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 13, 2013. The headline is “Shutdown Likely to Prolong Fed’s Stimulus.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. Here is one excerpt …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of October 14 …
The nomination of Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve has generated much recent commentary. While I may comment at length upon her nomination at a later time, for now I would like to highlight, for reference purposes, a few excerpts in the October 10, 2013 New York Times article titled “Yellen’s Path From Liberal Theorist to …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
John Hussman, in his September 23 Weekly Market Comment, states the following: Again, the difficulty with valuing stocks on the basis of raw price/earnings ratios is that corporate profits as a share of GDP are presently over 70% above their long-term historical norm. Though the actual course of corporate profits will be affected by numerous …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on October 10, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to October 4, …
The collector car market is one that I have followed on a casual basis over the years. I find that it is an interesting market in many respects. One of the more notable characteristics is its volatility. Recently, there have been a variety of auction reports that I find very notable. Specifically, here are some …
Today (October 9, 2013), The Conference Board and PwC released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 54, down from 62 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 9 Press Release …