Building Financial Danger – October 8, 2013 Update

On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 29th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains  many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …

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Deflation Probabilities

While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …

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October 1 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On October 1, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Dips During Budget Battle.”  The subtitle is “Index falls to -19 in September from -13 in August.” Notable excerpts include: As the fiscal battles in Washington intensified last month and the federal government inched closer to its first shutdown in 17 years, Americans’ confidence …

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Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – October 3, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on October 3, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to September 27, …

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Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – October 3, 2013 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through yesterday’s closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, …

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Various Thoughts Concerning The Safety Of Money Market Funds

I have written extensively about how my analyses indicate the existence of many asset bubbles.  These asset bubbles, and their dynamics, pose a great danger to investors, especially during times of heavy selling pressures and concomitant liquidation that accompanies significant market distress.  My analyses indicate that these heavy selling pressures will be especially high during …

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Financial Stocks – October 2, 2013 Update Concerning Poor “Price Action”

On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.”  This post is the latest update of that message. Although financial stocks have (in general) increased in price since 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting.  I view the poor …

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Financial Stocks – Relative Price To Overall Stock Market – October 2, 2013 Update

In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable.  It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …

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