America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
One of my ongoing concerns is the level and future resiliency of the U.S. Dollar. For reference, below is a chart that I find notable. It provides a comparison of the Euro (on the top plot) to the Dollar (found on the bottom plot) on a daily basis over the last five years: (chart courtesy …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March, updated on April 24, 2015. This value is $240,175 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his April 23, 2015 post titled “Median Household Income Declined In March” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. As …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 16, 2015 update (reflecting data through April 10) is -1.154. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of April 21, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 17, 2015: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $118.02/share …
On April 8, 2015, The Conference Board and PwC released the 1st Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 57, down from 60 in the fourth quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this April 8 Press Release include: …