America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On April 7, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “Monthly U.S. Economic Confidence Index Back To Negative.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index registered its first negative monthly score of 2015 in March, slipping to -2. This is down from +1 in February and +3 in January. also: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 1st Quarter of 2015. As seen in page 2 of the report, “Ninety-six CFOs responded during the two-week period ending February 20. Sixty-eight percent of respondents are from public companies, and 82% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue. For more …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
In the last post (“4th Quarter 2014 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this …
Today’s GDP release (Q4, 3rd Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (last updated March 27, 2015, …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 19, 2015 update (reflecting data through March 13) is -1.007. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …