America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted (the Gross Domestic Product Q3 2014 Advance Estimate of October 30, 2014): _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 1994.65 as this post is written
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 23, 2014 update (reflecting data through October 17) is -.827. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
For reference purposes, below are four charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money Stock” …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September, last updated on October 28, 2014. This value is 241,633 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 23, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of October 17, 2014 (incorporating data through …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 16, 2014 update (reflecting data through October 10) is -1.065. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
In past posts I have discussed various disconcerting aspects regarding the financial condition faced by large numbers of Americans, as well as the worrisome levels (and economic ramifications) of income and wealth disparity. On October 17, 2014 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech titled “Perspectives on Inequality and Opportunity from the Survey of …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …