America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The July 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on July 14, 2016. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Half of Economists See No Fed Rate Increase Until December.” As indicated in the article, 60 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – although …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 7, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 1) is -.928. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 85 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through July 8, 2016) from Doug Short’s blog …
On July 7, 2016, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 52, up from 47 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this July 7 Press Release include: CEOs’ assessment …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …