America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets, as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble with immensely large and wide-ranging economic implications. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the June 24, 2014 post titled “The Bond Bubble – June 2014 Update“) I have …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of July 22, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The July 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of July 21, 2016: (current reading of CFNAI is .16; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.12): – The ECRI …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 14, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 8) is -1.041. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of July 18, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of July 13, 2016: Year 2016 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $113.86/share …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …