On July 7, 2016, The Conference Board released the 2nd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 52, up from 47 in the first quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses]
Notable excerpts from this July 7 Press Release include:
CEOs’ assessment of current economic conditions improved somewhat, with 21 percent saying conditions are better compared to six months ago, up from about 19 percent last quarter. Business leaders’ appraisal of current conditions in their own industries was considerably more favorable, with 30 percent stating conditions in their own industries have improved, up from 18 percent in the first quarter.
CEOs’ short-term outlook continued to improve, with about 25 percent expecting better economic conditions over the next six months, up from 18 percent last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was also more favorable, with almost 33 percent of CEOs anticipating an improvement in conditions over the next six months, up from 22 percent in the first quarter.
The Business Roundtable last month also released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 2nd Quarter of 2016. Notable excerpts from the June 15, 2016 release, titled “CEO Economic Outlook Shows Modest Improvement“ (pdf):
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO projections for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — increased modestly from 69.4 in the first quarter 2016 to 73.5 in the second quarter. The Index remains below its historical average of 79.8 but well above 50, indicating continued economic expansion.
CEO expectations for sales over the next six months improved by 0.8 points, while plans for capital expenditures moved up by 8.1 points, relative to last quarter. Expectations for hiring increased by 3.5 points from last quarter.
However, in their third estimate of real GDP growth for 2016, CEOs expect 2.1 percent growth, down from their 2.2 percent estimate in the first quarter of 2016.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2129.90 as this post is written