America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of January 16, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of January 12, 2018: Year 2018 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $149.04/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 18, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 12, 2018) is -1.492. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 103 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of January 11, 2018, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
The January 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 11, 2018. The headline is “Economists Credit Trump as Tailwind for U.S. Growth, Hiring and Stocks.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 4th Quarter of 2017. As seen in page 2 of the report, there were 147 survey respondents. As stated: “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 4, 2018 update (reflecting data through December 29, 2017) is -1.562. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …
On January 4, 2018, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 63, up from 59 in the third quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this January 4 Press Release include: CEOs’ assessment …