America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2017, updated on January 26, 2018. This value is $249,448 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
I have written extensively about U.S. interest rates and their importance. Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy. My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag. From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” category. …
For reference purposes, below is a chart of the S&P500 and VIX from year 2003 through Wednesday’s (January 24, 2018) close. The closing price for the S&P500 was 2837.54 and the VIX had a closing value of 11.47. A dashed blue line depicts the VIX value of 20. Price labels are also shown: (click on …
On this site numerous highly problematical issues concerning the U.S. economy and financial system have been discussed. Of key importance is the resulting level of risk and future implications. As discussed in the September 29, 2017 post (“Problematical Aspects Of Today’s Financial System“) the almost universal opinion is that the financial system is strong, in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 18, 2018 update (reflecting data through January 12, 2018) is -1.492. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 22, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of .27: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …