America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 23, 2019: The CFNAI, with current reading of .56: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 19, 2019, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 12, 2019: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $158.37/share …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 18, 2019. The headline is “U.S. Expansion Expected to Continue Through 2020.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Three excerpts: The U.S. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 12, 2019 update (reflecting data through December 6, 2019) is -1.333. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
On December 16, 2019, the Zillow Q4 2019 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Two excerpts from the press release: The experts project that U.S. home prices will increase by an average of 2.8% during 2020. This is a slightly more optimistic outlook than the 2.5% rate the …
In the December 16, 2019 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “2020 Outlook.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2020 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. As seen in the article, the average estimates among these 10 respondents is for …