America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug …
The December 2019 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 13, 2019 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2019 3130.0 June 30, 2020 3202.0 Dec. 31, 2020 3257.6 Dec. 31, 2021 3400.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2019:Q3). The last value (as of the December 12, 2019 update) is $113.832434 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of December 12, 2019 titled “Fed Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge …
On Wednesday, December 11, 2019 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2019 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
On December 11, 2019 the December 2019 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: More than half (52%) of U.S. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 5, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 29, 2019) is -1.380. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 10, 2019. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Sees Major Spike in November.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 2.3 points to 104.7. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …