The December 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 18, 2019. The headline is “U.S. Expansion Expected to Continue Through 2020.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.
On average, they expect U.S. economic growth to slow slightly in 2020, to a year-over-year rate of 1.8% in the fourth quarter from an estimated 2.2% in 2019. They also see lower odds of a recession over the next year than they did in the prior two months.
Just over a third of economists expect the next recession will come in 2021. One-fifth expect it in 2020, and 22.9% expect it to come in 2022.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 25.85%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 5% to 65%. For reference, the average response in November’s survey was 30.19%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 57 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted December 12 – December 16, 2019.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2019: 2.24%
full-year 2020: 1.78%
full-year 2021: 1.88%
full-year 2022: 1.99%
December 2019: 3.53%
December 2020: 3.68%
December 2021: 3.84%
December 2022: 3.98%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 1.84%
December 2020: 2.01%
December 2021: 2.28%
December 2022: 2.54%
December 2019: 2.10%
December 2020: 1.96%
December 2021: 2.14%
December 2022: 2.17%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2019: $58.76
for 12/31/2020: $56.88
for 12/31/2021: $58.65
for 12/31/2022: $58.83
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3197.81 as this post is written