Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – June 2021

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the …

Read more

Zillow Q2 2021 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On June 10, 2021, the Zillow Q2 2021 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: With housing demand showing no signs of slowing from a pandemic-fueled boom in the second half of 2020, the expert panel has once again adjusted their home price growth expectations …

Read more

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 10, 2021 update (reflecting data through June 4, 2021) is -1.0062: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …

Read more

NFIB Small Business Optimism – May 2021

The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, June 8, 2021. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Pauses in May as Labor Shortage Slows Growth.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .2 points to 99.6. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t …

Read more

Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q1 2021

“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation.  In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” On the Advisor Perspectives’ site there is an update depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in the June 4, 2021 …

Read more

Building Financial Danger – June 8, 2021 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

Read more