America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Recently, the Federal Reserve has taken many substantial actions to address financial market weakness, as well as an actual and expected very large drop in economic activity. In addition to the actions taken by the Federal Reserve, there are various actions taken at the Federal, State, and local levels. These programs are largely still being … Read more Federal Reserve Actions To Address Financial And Economic Weakness
On March 19, 2020, the Zillow Q1 2020 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q1 2020 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by … Read more Zillow Q1 2020 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 12, 2020 update (reflecting data through March 6, 2020) is -.936. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March … Read more Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of March 16, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the … Read more S&P500 EPS Estimates 2019 Through 2021 And Prior EPS
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of March 13, 2020: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $157.10/share … Read more Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2019, 2020, & 2021 – March 13, 2020
On Sunday, March 15, 2020 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave an unscheduled FOMC Press Conference. (link of audio and related materials) [also, there was a previously unscheduled FOMC Press Conference on March 3; link of video and related materials] Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with … Read more Jerome Powell’s March 15, 2020 Press Conference – Notable Aspects
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is … Read more Four Charts Of Recent S&P500 Price Volatility – March 16, 2020
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – March 13, 2020 Update
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2019:Q4). The last value (as of the March 12, 2020 update) is $118.36818 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, … Read more Total Household Net Worth As Of 4Q 2019 – Two Long-Term Charts