Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2020 & 2021 – November 12, 2020

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 12, 2020: Year 2020 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $120.19/share …

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Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2020 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2020 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 16, 2020.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2020:  -3.5% full-year 2021:  4.0% full-year 2022:  …

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Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – November 2020

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …

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Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 13, 2020 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …

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The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The November 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on November 12, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economic Recovery Seen Staying on Track After Election.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 12, 2020 update (reflecting data through November 6, 2020) is -.3909. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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Recession Probability Models – November 2020

Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …

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Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payroll – November 6, 2020 Update

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payroll measures (FRED data series PAYEMS). PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number …

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Building Financial Danger – November 9, 2020 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

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