Building Financial Danger – August 7, 2020 Update

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My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read more Building Financial Danger – August 7, 2020 Update

Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q2 2020

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“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation.  In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” On the Advisor Perspectives’ site there is an update depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in the August 4, 2020 … Read more Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q2 2020

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – August 5, 2020 Update

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For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s (August 4, 2020) close, which had a closing value of 23.76. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read more VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – August 5, 2020 Update

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – August 5, 2020 Update

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In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, … Read more Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – August 5, 2020 Update

U.S. Main Stock Market Indexes – Ultra Long-Term Charts

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StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The … Read more U.S. Main Stock Market Indexes – Ultra Long-Term Charts

U.S. Dollar Decline – August 3, 2020 Update

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U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, … Read more U.S. Dollar Decline – August 3, 2020 Update

Problematical Aspects Of The U.S. National Economy

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Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portray a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, followed by a sustained significant economic rebound and then financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very … Read more Problematical Aspects Of The U.S. National Economy

St. Louis Fed Price Pressures – Deflation Probability Through July 2020

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For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through July 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This … Read more St. Louis Fed Price Pressures – Deflation Probability Through July 2020

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 31, 2020

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Advisor Perspectives had a post of July 31, 2020 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: July Final Sinks Further“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find … Read more Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of July 31, 2020

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Second Quarter 2020

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While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read more Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Second Quarter 2020