America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 16, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
Read moreS&P500 EPS Estimates Concerning Years 2020, 2021, And 2022
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 10, 2020: Year 2020 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $113.67/share …
Read moreStandard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2020 & 2021 – September 10, 2020
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 10, 2020 update (reflecting data through September 4, 2020) is -.32. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …
Read moreCharts Indicating Economic Weakness – September 2020
The September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 10, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Overall Economy Is Recovering Faster Than Economists Expected.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An …
Read moreThe September 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a …
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 8, 2020. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Index Rebounds, Exceeding Historical Average.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 1.4 points to 100.2. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
Read moreBuilding Financial Danger – September 8, 2020 Update
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
Read more“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of September 2020