America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 5, 2019 update (reflecting data through August 30, 2019) is -1.266. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
On September 10, 2019, the Zillow Q3 2019 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: The average panel-wide projections mask significant differences of opinion among individual experts who participated in the survey. For example, the most optimistic quartile of panelists expects home values … Read moreZillow Q3 2019 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 10, 2019. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Remains Steady…” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased in August by 1.6 points to 103.1. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): The … Read moreNFIB Small Business Optimism – August 2019
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read moreBuilding Financial Danger – September 9, 2019 Update
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in … Read more“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of September 2019
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic … Read moreAverage Hourly Earnings Trends
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. … Read moreU-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of September 6, 2019
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the … Read more3 Critical Unemployment Charts – September 2019
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 5, 2019 update (reflecting data through August 30, 2019) is -1.266. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – September 2019