Recession Probability Models – November 2019

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – November 2019

Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payroll – November 1, 2019 Update

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payroll measures (FRED data series PAYEMS). PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number … Read moreMonthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payroll – November 1, 2019 Update

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic … Read moreAverage Hourly Earnings Trends

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of November 1, 2019

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. … Read moreU-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of November 1, 2019

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – November 2019

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the … Read more3 Critical Unemployment Charts – November 2019

U.S. Dollar Decline – November 1, 2019 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial … Read moreU.S. Dollar Decline – November 1, 2019 Update

The Strength Of The U.S. Economy And Financial System

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect.  There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that … Read moreThe Strength Of The U.S. Economy And Financial System

Jerome Powell’s October 30, 2019 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, October 30, 2019 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled October 2019 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the … Read moreJerome Powell’s October 30, 2019 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2019

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly … Read moreEmployment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2019

Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 30, 2019

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2019, and were last updated as of October 30, 2019. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.308: Data Source: FRED, … Read moreVelocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 30, 2019