America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of January 31, 2023 (“Consumer Confidence Declines in January“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings …
While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index: what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through January 2023. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of January 12, 2023, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2023.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are two charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2022, and were last updated as of January 26, 2023. Velocity of M1 Money Stock, current value = 1.313: Data Source: FRED, Federal …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of January 26, 2023 titled “Q4 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 2.9%, Better Than Forecast” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) of January 26, 2023: _________ I post various indicators …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 26, 2023: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -0.49: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2022, updated on January 26, 2023. This value is $286,885 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …