America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
On June 10, 2021, the Zillow Q2 2021 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: With housing demand showing no signs of slowing from a pandemic-fueled boom in the second half of 2020, the expert panel has once again adjusted their home price growth expectations …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2021:Q1). The last value (as of the June 10, 2021 update) is $136.917098 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 10, 2021 titled “Fed Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $5.0 Trillion in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 10, 2021 update (reflecting data through June 4, 2021) is -1.0062: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, June 8, 2021. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Pauses in May as Labor Shortage Slows Growth.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased by .2 points to 99.6. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t …
Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” On the Advisor Perspectives’ site there is an update depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in the June 4, 2021 …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …