Another Recession Probability Indicator – Through Q3 2024

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of January 6, 2025, titled “Recession Probability Models – January 2025.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Jerome Powell’s January 29, 2025 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Wednesday, January 29, 2025 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled January 2025 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 – 4th Quarter 2024

For reference purposes, below is a chart reflecting Real GDP, as depicted, with value $23,530.909.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) of January 30, 2025: source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed January 30, 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 _________ I post …

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Money Supply Charts Through December 2024

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through December 2024

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December 2024, updated on January 28, 2025. This value is $276,059 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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January 28, 2025 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

On January 28, 2025 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Ticks Down as Partisans’ Views Shift.” Notable excerpts include: This month, 26% of U.S. adults say economic conditions are “excellent” or “good,” while 33% call them “only fair” and 40% “poor.” This results in a -14 score on the current conditions component …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators January 2025

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of January 27, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .15: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 23, 2025 update (reflecting data through January 17, 2025) is -.8225: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – January 23, 2025 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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