Exceedingly Problematic U.S. Economic And Financial System Issues

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Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate a significant economic rebound followed by sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – …

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Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of March 30, 2021

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Advisor Perspectives had a post of March 30, 2021 (“Consumer Confidence Highest In A Year“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these …

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U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through March 2021

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For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through March 2021. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …

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4th Quarter 2020 Corporate Profits

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Today’s (March 25, 2021) GDP release (Q4 2020, Third Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (preliminary estimate) for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through February 2021

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Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2021, updated on March 24, 2021. This value is $254,004 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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Money Supply Charts Through February 2021

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For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – March 23, 2021 Update

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Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators March 2021

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The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2021 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 22, 2021: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -1.09: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

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S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of March …

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