Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate.
The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels.
As seen in the January 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey the consensus (average estimate) among various economists is for 2.65% GDP in 2023, 1.01% GDP in 2024, 1.99% GDP in 2025, and 2.01% in 2026.
Charts Indicating U.S. Economic Weakness
Below is a small sampling of charts that depict weak growth or contraction, and a brief comment for each:
The Yield Curve (T10Y2Y)
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is a leading economic indicator for the United States economy.
On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.”
While I continue to have the stated reservations regarding the “Yield Curve” as an indicator, I do believe that it should be monitored.
The U.S. Yield Curve (one proxy seen below) is (all things considered) notably inverted when viewed from a long-term perspective. Below is the spread between the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity and the 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from June 1976 through the April 5, 2024 update, showing a value of -.41% [10-Year Treasury Yield (FRED DGS10) of 4.31% as of the April 5 update, 2-Year Treasury Yield (FRED DGS2) of 4.65% as of the April 5 update]:
source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 8, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
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Job Openings (JTSJOL)
Job openings (Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL]), although still at a (very) high level, have recently declined significantly. This “Job Openings” measure had a value of 8,756 (Thousands) through February 2024 as of the April 2, 2024 update, as shown below:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -11.1%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 7, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
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Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing (AWOTMAN)
Various U.S. manufacturing measures continue to indicate growth. However, overtime hours for manufacturing is somewhat subdued by recent-era economic expansion standards and the measure on a Percent Change From Year Ago level has recently been negative.
Shown below is the “Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing” measure (with last value of 3.6 hours through March) last updated April 5, 2024:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value 0.0%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Manufacturing [AWOTMAN], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 7, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWOTMAN
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Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSA)
Sales of “Heavy Weight Trucks” (HTRUCKSSA) has recently been volatile. Shown below is this measure with last value of 39.817 Thousand through March 2024, last updated April 5, 2024:
Below is this measure displayed on a “Percent Change From Year Ago” basis with value -6.1%:
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks [HTRUCKSSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 7, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HTRUCKSSA
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Other Indicators
As mentioned previously, many other indicators discussed on this site indicate weak economic growth or economic contraction, if not outright (gravely) problematical economic conditions.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5204.34 as this post is written