The April 2024 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 14, 2024. The headline is “’Envy of the World’ – U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section.
An excerpt:
The U.S. economy has far outperformed expectations over the past year and a half. Instead of stumbling under the weight of the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest-rate-raising campaign in four decades, it has continued expanding at a robust clip.
Few think that the economy can do quite as well as last year’s 3.1% growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted fourth-quarter change from a year earlier. That figure might have been boosted by one-time factors such as federal infrastructure and semiconductor legislation and an uptick in immigration, which also might not last.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to whether the economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months was 29%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 1% to 75%. For reference, the average response in January’s survey [the previously published survey] was 39%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 69 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. The survey was conducted April 5 – April 9. Not every economist answered every question.
–
Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2024: 1.72%
full-year 2025: 1.90%
full-year 2026: 2.01%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2024: 4.11%
December 2025: 4.17%
December 2026: 4.03%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2024: 3.97%
December 2025: 3.78%
December 2026: 3.78%
CPI:
December 2024: 2.73%
December 2025: 2.29%
December 2026: 2.30%
Core PCE:
full-year 2024: 2.54%
full-year 2025: 2.13%
full-year 2026: 2.09%
(note: I have highlighted this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each time it is published; it was published monthly until April 2021, after which the survey is conducted (at least) every three months; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
_____
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
_____
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 5123.41 as this post is written