America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 19, 2021, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 9, 2021: Year 2021 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $173.72/share …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The following is the latest update of 10 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years, even during the longest U.S. economic expansion that recently ended. [The June 8, 2020 NBER BCDC declaration of U.S. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 15, 2021 update (reflecting data through April 9, 2021) is -.9184: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, …
On April 14, 2021, the Zillow Q1 2021 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Strong competition for available homes pushed up prices last year — the typical home appreciated by more than $20,000 in 2020. Even with an expectation for more inventory to help meet …
Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …
The April 2021 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2021. The headline is “With Economy Poised for Best Growth Since 1983, Inflation Lurks.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. An excerpt: …
Jerome Powell gave an interview to “60 Minutes”, which was broadcast Sunday (April 11, 2021) night. The video of the Interview and transcript can be seen at “Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells 60 Minutes America is going back to work.” Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable in the order they appear in …