America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Advisor Perspectives had a post of September 30, 2022 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Mostly Unchanged in September“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these …
On September 29, 2022, the Zillow Q3 2022 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Although the panel-wide 2022 expected home price appreciation rate ticked up to 9.8% from 9.3% in this most recent survey, all 107 survey respondents project home price deceleration …
On September 28, 2022 The CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Financial decision-makers lowered …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August 2022, updated on September 27, 2022. This value is $272,659 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2022 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 26, 2022: The CFNAI, with a current reading of 0.0: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The Advisor Perspectives’ post of September 23, 2022, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business Conditions Index Update” …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (September 22, 2022) from the Advisor Perspectives’ site …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …