America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Wednesday, September 21, 2022 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2022 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI3) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 22, 2022 update (reflecting data through September 16, 2022) is -1.9120: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI3], retrieved from FRED, …
On September 12, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this September 12, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable Q3 CEO Economic Outlook Index Signals Continued U.S. Slowdown“: Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite …
On January 9, 2017 I wrote a post titled “Low Interest Rates And The Formation Of Asset Bubbles.“ As discussed in that post – and for other reasons – the level of the Fed Funds rate – and whether its level is appropriate – has vast importance and far-reaching consequences with regard to many aspects …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 2, 2022, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 8, 2022: Year 2022 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $209.76/share …
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 13, 2022. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small business optimism rebounds slightly in latest report.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 1.9 points to 91.8. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2022:Q2). The last value (as of the September 9, 2022 update) is $143.763133 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …