Problems Within The American Economic Situation

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Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is …

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10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of December 29, 2022

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I have written extensively about the importance of U.S. interest rate levels.  Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy.  My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag.   From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” …

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misc. note – corrections of blog posts

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In the July 2, 2010 post I explained my policy with regard to changing the content of posts after the day the posts have been published on the blog.

While I change bad links and incorrect formatting without notification, I believe that changing blog posts’ content warrants disclosure.

Over time I have made corrections to content on various blog posts.  These corrections generally have been for reasons of (factual) accuracy and – for better readability – to correct typos and/or incorrect extraneous wording.

A list of these corrections is seen below.  This list indicates the posts corrected and the reason for such corrections.  The error as seen in the original posting is seen in bold:

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Money Supply Charts Through November 2022

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For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

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Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of December 23, 2022

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Advisor Perspectives had a post of December 23, 2022 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up 5% in December“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through November 2022

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Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through November 2022, updated on December 23, 2022. This value is $270,644 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – December 23, 2022 Update

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Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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The CFO Survey Fourth Quarter 2022 – Notable Excerpts

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On December 21, 2022 The CFO Survey (formerly called the “Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook”) was released.  It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: CFO optimism about …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

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S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December …

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2022-2024 S&P500 EPS Estimates And Previous Actual EPS

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As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 9, 2022, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the …

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