America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 15, 2022: Year 2022 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $200.49/share …
The December 2022 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 16, 2022 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 30, 2022 3970.0 June 30, 2023 3927.4 Dec. 29, 2023 4170.0 Dec. 31, 2024 4321.8 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On December 5, 2022, the Business Roundtable released its most recent CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 4th Quarter of 2022. Notable excerpts from this December 5, 2022 release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Declines Further in Q4“: Business Roundtable today released its Q4 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index …
On Wednesday, December 14, 2022 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2022 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 15, 2022 update (reflecting data through December 9, 2022) is .2480: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, December 13, 2022. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “November’s Optimism Index reading stays below 49-year average.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by .6 points to 91.9. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2022:Q3). The last value (as of the December 9, 2022 update) is $143.278389 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of December 9, 2022 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $.4 Trillion in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various estimates, the probability of recession has grown significantly. As seen in …