America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the previous blog post I wrote of the issues and implications regarding the current economic growth rate. There are a variety of sources and methods one may use in trying to gauge current and future economic growth. In this blog I frequently highlight and discuss many I feel are prominent and/or noteworthy. However, I …
This post, and the next, will deal with economic activity and economic indicators. My most recent update of various economic indicators was on March 15. One indicator that I have yet to add to this list is that of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Many people believe the Chicago Fed National Activity Index to …
Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm an excerpt dated 2/24: “The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized …
I found the March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained three sets of interesting material. First, it contained the survey results and comments of economists with regard to what impact interventions (The Federal Reserve’s actions as well as that of the ARRA) have played in “rescuing the U.S. economy from the financial crisis.” Second, …
I ran across the following paper titled “Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis” (pdf) dated February 22, 2010. This paper discusses and explains this new attempt to create a “financial conditions index” that will accurately predict economic activity. From the abstract: “As of the end of 2009, our FCI showed financial …
Lately there have been an increasing number of people citing the possibility of a “double-dip” recession. Much of this scenario is predicated upon the belief that as government stimulus spending fades, so too will economic activity. This March 5 article from CNBC.com summarizes some of the opinions regarding the double-dip reasoning and possibilities. I find …
Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010. As …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey can be found at this link. There wasn’t much change in the survey results from last month. Also, as seen in the detail, there hasn’t been much change for many of the parameters for the last few months. As I have previously commented, I find it highly …
I came upon another economic outlook index, this one titled “USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index.” The link is found here: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm The index is designed to predict real GDP growth and is a composite of 11 indicators. Currently the chart shows a prediction for each month in 2010 up through June. The June …
Here is the link to the latest (January) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704363504575002700724430016.html As seen in the survey details, there hasn’t been much change in expectations concerning full-year 2010 GDP or the Unemployment Rate for many months. The average expectation is for a full-year GDP of 3.0% and Unemployment Rate for December 2010 of 9.5%. …