America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (pdf) (last updated 4/29/10) The Consumer Metrics Institute’s Contraction Watch: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: an excerpt dated 4/29/10: “The April update of …
On April 12 Robert J. Gordon, a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, wrote of the reasons why he believes that “It is obvious that the recession is over.” There are many noteworthy items in his article, and I could extensively comment on his arguments. Needless to say I disagree, fully or partially, …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained a couple items of interest. First, an interesting quote in the survey: “”The Fed dropped the funds rate to near zero due to a fast and sharp decline in economy. Having avoided a 1930s-type scenario, is a 0% policy rate still justified?” said Joseph Carson of …
Pursuant to the last post, here are some charts from The Consumer Metrics Institute that I find noteworthy: As I indicated in the last post, I plan on including updated information from The Consumer Metrics Institute in my frequent updates of economic indicators… back to <home> SPX at 1170.51 as this post is written
In the previous blog post I wrote of the issues and implications regarding the current economic growth rate. There are a variety of sources and methods one may use in trying to gauge current and future economic growth. In this blog I frequently highlight and discuss many I feel are prominent and/or noteworthy. However, I …
This post, and the next, will deal with economic activity and economic indicators. My most recent update of various economic indicators was on March 15. One indicator that I have yet to add to this list is that of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Many people believe the Chicago Fed National Activity Index to …
Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm an excerpt dated 2/24: “The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized …
I found the March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained three sets of interesting material. First, it contained the survey results and comments of economists with regard to what impact interventions (The Federal Reserve’s actions as well as that of the ARRA) have played in “rescuing the U.S. economy from the financial crisis.” Second, …
I ran across the following paper titled “Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis” (pdf) dated February 22, 2010. This paper discusses and explains this new attempt to create a “financial conditions index” that will accurately predict economic activity. From the abstract: “As of the end of 2009, our FCI showed financial …
Lately there have been an increasing number of people citing the possibility of a “double-dip” recession. Much of this scenario is predicated upon the belief that as government stimulus spending fades, so too will economic activity. This March 5 article from CNBC.com summarizes some of the opinions regarding the double-dip reasoning and possibilities. I find …