The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained a couple items of interest.

First, an interesting quote in the survey:

“”The Fed dropped the funds rate to near zero due to a fast and sharp decline in economy. Having avoided a 1930s-type scenario, is a 0% policy rate still justified?” said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein. “We criticize banks for offering teaser rates to buy homes, but the Fed is offering a teaser rate for the entire economy.”

Second, to the question “What effect will the overhaul have on the growth of nationwide health-care costs over the next 10 years compared to what would have occurred without it?” – only 15% indicated it will slow cost growth.

Also, for those unaware, about the survey:

“The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared.”

Otherwise, the detail indicates little change in economist expectations among major economic measures such as 10-Year Treasury Yield, GDP, CPI, etc.   This continues a many-months trend of little changes in economic expectations.  There was, however, a notable change in the expectation of the price of Crude Oil, with the new year-end price forecast of $82.94 vs. the previous month’s year-end forecast of $79.52.


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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SPX at 1211.67 as this post is written