The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

I found the March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained three sets of interesting material.

First, it contained the survey results and comments of economists with regard to what impact interventions (The Federal Reserve’s actions as well as that of the ARRA) have played in “rescuing the U.S. economy from the financial crisis.”

Second, according to the survey, “…the economists put the odds of a double-dip recession at just 17%…”

Third, to the question “How confident are you that Congress and the president will act to reduce the long-term budget deficit before a major financial market crisis?” these responses were interesting:

“We usually do the right thing after having exhausted all other options.”

“Their record of fiscal discipline is horrific.”

Otherwise, the various forecast averages for such measures as the Ten-Year Treasury Yield, GDP and Unemployment Rate remain largely unchanged.  As seen in the detail, there hasn’t been material change in the average of these forecasted measures for months.


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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SPX at 1149.99 as this post is written