Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 21, 2011:
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The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:
An excerpt from the November 8 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :
The October update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 1.1% by March. Persistent unemployment, elevated debt levels, high energy and food prices and low confidence have stalled consumer spending. Businesses are hesitant to expand amid uncertainty.
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of 11/11/11 the WLI was at 122.1 and the WLI, Gr. was at -7.8%.
A chart of the WLI Growth since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of November 18 titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Decline in Growth Index Continues to Moderate” :
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The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):
The Indicator as of August 31 was at 41.5, as seen below:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 11-12-09 to 11-12-11:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the November 18 release, the LEI was at 117.4 and the CEI was at 103.5 in October.
An excerpt from the November 18 release:
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The October rebound of the LEI — largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits — suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded. Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as did the continuing positive contributions from the interest rate spread. The CEI also rose somewhat, led by higher industrial production and employment.”
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1192.98 as this post is written